Phase 1 Projections due

• 1 scenario, fitting up to Nov 2020, forecast of Nov - April

Tasks and details to make this round happen:

• need to include ethnicity/race in the model --> remove age (for now)
• estimate rough case reporting ratio by race/ethnicity
• find/define IFR by R/E (factor of age structure and co-morbidities, etc.)
• estimate weights of R/E by school, community, work, household? (using age)
• build config
• test Breaking_improvements on COVID (use FCH)
• merge BI into main
• make sure scaling is multiplicative (not 1-x)
• check on sub-state possibility
• check what variants might need to include

Details of the run:

• CA and NC only
• Calibrate to Jan 2020 - Nov 2020
• Project forward Nov 2020 - April 2021
• Vacc, empirical cases/deaths, contact matrices provide by SMH